Iranian Protests Continue

Despite calls from Supreme Leader Ayatolla Khamenei to back down and accept the election results of last week, the Iranian public have once again taken to the streets today in protest against the allegedly rigged re-election of President Ahmadinejad. Many have been beaten and arrested by the government's forces, and 15 to date have been killed, in what is the most popular uprising and defiance of the Iranian regime since the 1979 Revolution. Due to massive media clampdowns, see here for all the latest updates coming from Iran Read more...

Benjamin Netanyahu's Speech at Bar Ilan

Benjamin Netanyahu's speech last night was bound to upset a lot of people, and not surprisingly it has ruffled the feathers of both his own supporters as well as those who were never going to be happy with whatever he said anyway. This is the price a right wing leader pays when he edges further towards the centre and tries to please everyone: he inevitably ends up pleasing no-one.

For the first time however we saw a man who has never before mentioned the possibility of a Palestinian state now outlining the conditions under which he will make it possible. He also addressed and praised the economic successes of the cooperation between Israel and the Gulf states. So as to align himself as much as possible with the US, Netanyahu was careful to echo the sentiments and tone of hope expressed by President Obama last week in Cairo too.

He was right to emphasise that, contrary to Obama's implication that Israel's right to exist was premised on the Holocaust, the Jewish right to a stake in the land of Israel based on the 3,500-year-old Jewish connection to that land. ‘The places where Abraham, Isaac, and Jacob, David and Solomon, and Isaiah and Jeremiah lived,' he said, ‘are not alien to us. This is the land of our forefathers.'

At the same time, he acknowledged that the Palestinian people also have rights, and that it is not Israel's desire to rule over them. In this context he declared, ‘If we receive this guarantee regarding demilitarisation and Israel's security needs, and if the Palestinians recognise Israel as the State of the Jewish people, then we will be ready in a future peace agreement to reach a solution where a demilitarised Palestinian state exists alongside the Jewish state.'

Although Netanyahu has made a giant leap forward toward the a political solution to the Israel-Palestinian Peace Process (though of course many in the PA would disagree due to him stopping short of allowing them control over their airspace and denying them the right to have a military - though these are not new conditions as they were on the table during the Clinton proposals in 2000 and also part of the unofficial Geneva Accords) he will still face deep ideologial objections from his coalition parties and the National Religious Camp who belive that the West Bank is still the core of the Jewish historical homeland and steeped in Jewish culture and history.

So far at least it looks like the speech has gone down well in Washington though. With the positions now out in the open, there is a lot of talking to be done about how the details of both the American and Israeli plans can be hammered out and put into action as soon as the deep internal divisions amongst the Palestinians has been resolved. For this to happen, it will not just be the United States that needs to play a major role but also the wider Arab World will be crucial to giving the support required if the process is to move forward at all. Read more...

Iranian Election Results 2009

20 years ago the Iranian national elections, or any election in the Middle East for that matter, it would not have been worth staying up late for. This year however was different. With a close race expected and plenty of fun and games along the way, the results were highly anticipated and eagerly awaited. It turns out however that we may just as well have been living in the past as the results ended as a throwback to the 80s and it seems nothing has really changed after all.

With a modern and politically savvy youth population, Iranian President Ahmedinajad knew what he was doing when blocking websites such as Facebook and YouTube, and other viral style media, that would allow his opponent, Hossain Mousavi, a chance to spread his message running up to the elections. Is it a coincidence too that during the 30minute TV broadcast by Mousavi's Green Party (for change), the electricity grids in 5 provinces came down and disrupted the message?

As threatened by the supporters of Mousavi, there has been an uproar in the calling of foul play in the results of this election, with areas that are typically Mousavi strongholds even showing a landslide turn in the tide towards Amhedinajad. An uproar may well be an understatement as thousands have taken to the streets in protest and riots - the worst in Iran for 10 years according to some commentators. Chaos has broken out further with leaders of opposition parties taken into custody via raids on their headquarters by the police and other government security forces.

So it looks like no change in Iran and its more of the same. Or perhaps this election has brought to the surface the true feelings of Iranians to the outside world and created internal strife even further that may complicate matters and make life a little more uncomfortable for the ongoing President. If so, then this feeling needs to be exploited and, in order to keep the hopes of the Mr Mousavi, his party and their supporters alive, a move by the US that would make life even more difficult for Ahmedinajad would be most welcome. And what could this move be? A simple persistence in outstretching the arm of diplomacy and talks that would no odubt be refused once again and leave Ahmedinajad having to face his own people once more. If the results of the election are as true as he claims them to be then he should feel right at home... Read more...

March 14 Wins Lebanese Elections

The citizens of Lebanon turned out in large numbers yesterday to vote in the country's parliament elections. News outlets this morning report that the pro-western alliance declared victory against the opposition led by the pro-Iranian Hezbollah and its allies. "I present this victory to Lebanon. It is an exceptional day for democracy in Lebanon," Prime Minister Fouad Siniora after polls predicted his pro-western coalition was winning.

A close race was predicted in these elections between the two sides. In the previous parliament, the western-backed 14 March alliance, held a small majority of 70 seats in the parliament over the more extreme opposition involving pro-Syria and pro-Iranian forces, which held 58 seats. Tens of thousands of troops were deployed across polling stations as security was a high concern in the relatively unstable country. 3.2 million citizens out of a population of four million were eligible to vote, with the final results expected to be officially released this afternoon.

The declared victory by the pro-western alliance is a positive sign for Israel and especially the United States, where recently President Barack Obama has been laying out his vision for relations between his country and the Muslim world. A victory by Hezbollah, who is backed by Syria and Iran, would have resulted in international isolation of Beirut and the possibility of increased tensions with Israel. However, Hezbollah's defeat will not signal an end to its overwhelming power over the Lebanese political system. Despite being in opposition in recent years, Hezbollah succeeded in imposing its will and coercing the Lebanese government to agree to a series of concessions that solidified Hezbollah's dominance in some regions of the country, thanks to the support of its sponsor, Iran.

Click Here For Lebanon's Daily Star

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Obama's Speech in Cairo

Obama's speech in Cairo today was a momentous one and one to set the tone of US-Muslim relations for years to come. Following the Bush administration Obama has a lot of fires to put out and although there is a long way to go yet, today marked the first step of many in a direction that could make right the perceived wrongs of the past.

Recognising the differences the separate the Islamic and West's civilisation and the conflicts that have occurred in the past, Obama appealed to the his Muslim audience's respect and love of scripture by echoing back at them phrases from the Koran,

"Be conscious of God and speak always the truth."

, though his idea of truth may not necessarily be in line with his audience's version of the truth.

The speech, although touching on Iraq, Iran, Holocaust Denial and Settlements, was very thin on detail. There was nothing intrinsicly new in the speech, nothing we haven't heard before. Though the context in which he was speaking was and whether he was able to convince his Arab audience will be seen in actions to come, the Lebanese elections next week being the first test. Speeches can be impressive, but the real power of them can only be realised by action.

Click Here For the Full Speech
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Lebanese Elections 2009

With a general election on June 7th, Lebanese passions are running high. With blue for the party of the Future, orange for the party of Change and yellow for Hizbullah, the party of God, Lebanon's unusual democracy, based on quotas for each of the 16 recognised sects in its 128-strong parliament, has a tendency to explode, as it did during Lebanon’s gruelling civil war in 1975-90. The country is also a cockpit for wider struggles. With outsiders such as Iran, America, Syria and Saudi Arabia throwing their weight behind competing factions, the electoral outcome will inevitably be seen as a test of their relative strengths.

America and its allies want the current parliamentary majority, a shaky coalition of Sunni Muslims, Druze and assorted Christians, to retain the hold it gained in the previous election, in 2005, when it swept to power on a wave of popular anger following the murder of Rafik Hariri, a five-times prime minister and Sunni strongman.

Iran and Syria, whose peacekeeping army dominated Lebanon until its hasty withdrawal after Hariri’s murder, seek victory for the challengers, an alliance of disgruntled Christian factions led by Michel Aoun, a nationalist former general, and two Shia parties, Amal and Hizbullah, which field militias that harried Israel during its occupation of south Lebanon in 1978-2000 and which again fought against the Israelis in the Second Lebanon War of 2006.

The outsiders are not subtle in their use of influence. America recently dispatched its vice-president, Joe Biden, on a quick visit. While expressing hope for a clean election, he held a private meeting with leaders of the current majority, known in Lebanese shorthand as the March 14th group, and hinted that a win for their foes could jeopardise the aid America has lately lavished on the Lebanese army to reinforce it in the face of Hizbullah’s militias, which remain superior in training, equipment and morale. For his part, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad of Iran, which has showered equally large sums on its Lebanese protégés, predicts that their victory will bolster the “resistance”—to Israel and the West—and change the balance of power in the region.

But although some opinion polls suggest a slight lead for the opposition, the result may well be close. Oussama Safa, a political consultant, reckons that, given loyalties within the sectarian patchwork of voting districts, the two main alliances are each guaranteed around a third of the seats, leaving only a third of them in play.

Yet the result may not produce radical change. Since the 2006 war with Israel, the two main coalitions have become more polarised. The one led by Hizbullah says it won a “divine victory” against the Jewish state in the five-week war, whereas March 14th supporters still say the Shia militia must be disarmed and blames it for provoking an Israeli onslaught that caused widespread destruction.

Last year Hizbullah and its allies, frustrated by March 14th’s refusal to bow to their demand for a blocking share of seats in the cabinet, humiliated their opponents by staging a swift takeover of Sunni strongholds in Beirut. This move prompted March 14th to climb down at a reconciliation conference in Qatar. But the fighting infuriated Sunnis, frightened some of Hizbullah’s Christian partners and has left the squabbling parties suspended in a precarious equilibrium.

This, no matter what the election result, looks likely to be maintained, at any rate in the short run. Even if the March 14th group keeps a slim majority, it cannot counter Hizbullah’s street power under the charismatic leadership of Hassan Nasrallah. Nor can it stop Hizbullah’s quietly effective infiltration of key institutions, such as the army. In fact, some March 14th leaders already sound willing to accommodate their foes. The Druze chief, Walid Jumblatt, a weathervane of Lebanese politics and until recently a loud critic of Iran and Syria, has taken to exchanging compliments with Mr Nasrallah. A leaked recording of Mr Jumblatt in a private meeting revealed him disparaging his own coalition allies.

Yet the opposition alliance has weaknesses too. The Christian supporters of General Aoun feel slighted by the March 14th coalition and say that it is corrupt, but regard their own alliance with Hizbullah as tactical rather than strategic. Despite verbal support for the Shia movement, few Christians, whose own militias from the civil-war era were largely disarmed, are comfortable about Hizbullah’s growing military strength. And Hizbullah itself is uneasy with parliamentary politics. Fearing that it might be blamed for any future government’s failings, including a possible collapse of international support for the debt-ridden economy, it is fielding just 11 candidates, down from 14 in 2005, and may even give up its two cabinet posts.

Lebanon is used to fractious politics. Despite the years of turbulence, its economy is humming along nicely. It may tolerate another period of muddle and perhaps even emerge with a stronger centre, joining moderate parts of both the current coalitions. But the volatility is bound to persist. When a report in Der Spiegel, a German weekly, implicated Hizbullah agents in Hariri’s murder and in those of nine other people associated with March 14th, even the leaders of March 14th scuttled to defuse the bombshell, fearing the fallout across the country. Stability in Lebanon should never be taken for granted.
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