Iranian Missile Threat

With Bibi Netanyahu in Washington this week trying to convince President Obama that Iran is to be taken seriously and is an international threat that needs to be taken care of and fast, President Ahmedinejad seems to be playing right into his hands. What more evidence does one need of the suspicious intentions of the Iranian President than the testing of a new Sejil missile that can reach distances of up to 2,000km.

As far as Israel is concerned, the new missile is not particularly a threat as it could be easily targeted even with the older models that have a range of up to 1,500km. Instead, it is the European community that should be worried, according to Israeli Deputy Foreign Minister, Danny Ayalon, who said:

"The Iranian clock is ticking fast and has to be stopped."

But the Obama administration sees it differently. Instead, Iran only displays "troubling behaviour" and is to be dealt with by diplomacy, sanctions and isolation should they not heed to the warnings and offers of discussion by America. In the meantime, the expectations and pressure on Israel to stop the expansion of settlements is also high and Netanyahu will find himself squeezed from both the Iranians and the Americans with regards to how he handles both situations.


But Netanyahu, as the political maneuveurer extraordinare that he is, has a way out. For if there is to be a renewed negotiation with the Palestinians, there will need to be someone on that side of the table with whom to talk. But at present there isn't. Step in the Egyptians. As Bibi talks with Obama, President Mubarak is talking with Mahmoud Abbas, Khaled Mashaal and Ismail Haniyeh to come to an agreement on unity. This will be the fifth round of talks and so far shows no greater sign of reconciliation than the previous four.

And while the talking continues, the clock keeps ticking.... Read more...

Netanyahu's Visit to Egypt

As the pope visits Israel this week, Bibi Netanyahu has more important business to attend to. His trip to Egypt for talks with President Hosni Mubarak today reflects the realigning of the Arab world and their shared concerns over Iran. The phrase 'Our enemy's enemy is our friend', never rang more true.

Next week, Bibi is scheduled for his first visit to Washington since he became Prime Minsiter. He will be looking to show Barack Obama that there is more common ground between the Israelis and the Arabs than one might expect - the main part being their concerns over Iran. If he can show Mr.Obama that he has already got arguably the most powerful state in the Arab world, Egypt, on his side then he will be half way there.

But he is not just stopping at Egypt. Before Washington's trip comes Bibi is also in line to meet with King Abdulla of Jordan, who has also been busy rallying support amongst the Arab world, most notably Syria, to joining Jordan, Egypt and other pro-western arabic states in their alliance against Iran. Although the rewards for Syria to leave the grasp of Iranian influence, the pressures to maintain the status quo are also immense.

Israel relationship with Egypt is the cornerstone of the Middle East Peace process. Since their agreement in 1979, the connection has been strained and cold but despite several attempts to destabalise it, it has remained strong and symbolic of the hope that is possible in the region. The relationship has found itself strengthed in recent years thanks to two factors that have created common ground with Israel's worries: 1) The meddling activities of Iran in Arab politics as it scrambles to become the major power in the Middle East by striving for nuclear capability and 2) Iranian backed-Hamas's extremism in Gaza which lead to Operation Cast Lead in January of this year.

During the war the schisms revealed in the Arab world have never been bigger. Mubarak recalled Egypt's diplomatic envoy from Iran and publicly announced that Iran was trying to swallow up the Arab states, and Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah called on the Egyptian military and populace to bring down the Mubarak regime. Rhetoric of this kind is highly unusual in the Arab world, and led to a furious response in the Egyptian media, in which Nasrallah was lambasted for his statements and mocked for the fact that he has lived in hiding since the 2006 war with Israel.

Since the end of the Gaza War, Egypt has been struggling to control the weapons smuggling that Iran and Hezbollah have been carrying out in order to undermine Mubarak's government. From the IAF raid on an arms network running from Iran, via the Persian Gulf and Yemen to Sudan, Egypt, and finally, Hamas-ruled Gaza to the uncovering of a terroist Hezbollah cell in Egypt that was planning a series of attack on Egyptian soil, indicating that Iran had selected this arab state as a target for future attacks. All this means that Egypt is open for talks with Israel on how they can show a united front when meeting with the US President later this month.

But this is as far as it goes for now. Egypt will still be conscious of its 'obligations' to the Palestinians and its role as mediator in the peace process. As he will be going with PA President, Mahmoud Abbas, he will not want the atmosphere to be too awkward by having become closer with Abbas's enemy, Israel, for the Israeli-Palestinian peace process is still a major issue that keeps the Israeli-Egyptian relationship cold and is needing another push to be resolved. But with King Abdullah wanting to push forward a new plan and a renewal of talks between Israel and Syria, Israel and the Plaestinians and Israel and the 57 Arab States, there is a lot going on and only time will tell if the various plans will be successful in achieving their aims. Read more...

Conflict in Sri Lanka

Has anyone noticed that the conflict in Sri Lanka contains striking similarities to the conflict between Israel and Hamas that occurred during Operation Cast Lead in January of this year? Apparently not. Maybe that's because there has come to light yet another example that highlights how much more bloody and horrific the conflict in Sri Lanka is, that of the bombing by the Sri-Lankan government of a hospital killing 91 civilians. Do we hear an international uproar over this though? Of course not.

The conflict in Sri Lanka is one of an independent terrorist organisation, the Tamil Tigers, fighting since 1983, against the Sri Lankan government for independence of the Tamil Eelam region in northern Sri Lanka. The conflict has caused over 70,000 deaths with thousands more injured and displaced (150,000 according to the ICRC). The Sri Lankan government, by any standards, has been waging a war many times more ruthless than that Israel Operation Cast Lead, though during that conflict and after the international community and the public at large has remained fairly laid back in its criticism. There have been demands for a ceasefire though without the public outcry there is less pressure as a whole to push Sri Lanka to put an end to its hostilities.

During the height of the fighting Sri Lankan Prime Minister, Ratnasiri Wickremanayake said "We are not ready for a ceasefire and the war against terrorism is at the last stage....Some countries are pressurising us to go for ceasefire agreement. We cannot listen to the concerned international body or community which is putting pressure on us to accept a ceasefire agreement with LTTE. Our sovereignty must be respected and there should be no condition. We will not yield to any pressure." Sound familar? As a result, the terrorist organisation that is the Tamil Tigers, so the Sri Lankan government tells us, are nearing the last days of their existence as the war comes to an end. Read more...